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Rob Barber

EDR’s CEO brings his unique perspective to address topics of strategic interest, including the state of the ESA industry, business management issues, trends in information technology and global developments affecting environmental due diligence practices.

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Recent Blog Entries

  • The Pace of Change5.0
    Entry posted 11/25/09 by Rob

    Who thinks the pace of change is slower today than it was yesterday?

    Who thinks the pace of change will be slower tomorrow than it is today? 

    My guess is that nobody agrees with either of these statements.  Instead, I'll bet everyone can agree that the pace of change is increasing and will only continue to increase.  Yet despite this, we all witness some amazing behaviors everyday in defense of the status quo.

    Some of these behaviors are very well documented and highly publicized.  The "establishment's" response to digital media in the newspaper and music industries come immediately to mind.  Yet I also see resistance to change happening elsewhere including within our industry.

    Over the past 18 months we've watched our industry go through turmoil that has produced a significant contraction in property transaction volume.  Some people and firms have responded quickly and aggressively to this changing landscape.  Some businesses have been reorganized and refocused so that they can adapt to change more rapidly.  Yet others resisted this until there was no alternative.  It's been shocking at times to watch executives stand by and offer no new plans for growth as their businesses crumble around them.

    We're now about 20 months into our CRE recession and are finally starting to see the market expand again.  As this expansion has started, one thing had become amazingly clear to me.  The companies who reorganized, repurposed and recreated themselves over the past two years into more de-layered,customer-centric, fluid, nimble and flexible organizations are benefiting first.  The companies who were slow to adapt are still struggling more and will continue to for some time.

    As we head into 2010 and beyond, I believe the qualities that customers, investors, and employers will value the most are responsiveness, flexibility and openness to reinvention.  The skills and strategies that were most successful and valued yesterday will not necessarily be the same skills and strategies required for tomorrow's progress.  This fact is what makes life both exciting and sometimes scary.

    Peter Drucker used to talk about "abandonment" quite a bit.  His point was that the most successful companies (and executives) possess the ability to completely abandon what "used to work" in favor or what is most likely to work tomorrow.  There are no sacred cows, only growth, value creation and progress.

    "Abandonment" certainly has negative connotations.  For me, it immediately strikes an emotional chord and my mind goes to imagining someone being left alone unfairly.  However, in a business setting, abandonment needs to be embraced more.  Dropping yesterday's behaviors, if they no longer work, is not the same thing as abandoning a person.  In fact, I think the opposite is true.  Abandoning yesterday's approaches in favor of trying a better way actually helps people.  It challenges them to learn new skills, experiment and innovate. 

    And in my opinion, that's exactly what will lead us to the next wave of growth across the economy.

  • EDR Announcement: Building Permit Data Coming Soon
    Entry posted 10/17/09 by Rob

    EDR will soon be starting a phased roll-out of a national building permit database that will include a property specific building permit report.  This new service was made possible by a recent investment EDR made in BuildFax (located in Asheville, NC and Austin, TX).  At the moment, the BuildFax database includes:

    ·     14.4 million unique addresses

    ·     48 million building permits

    ·     3,300 cities, towns and villages across the U.S.

    There are multiple reasons for EDR's investment in BuildFax, not the least of which is that Building Department Records are a Standard Historical Source cited in ASTM E-1527.  Adding this information to our suite of historical research products means that EDR will now be able to provide 6 of the 8 Standard Historical Sources to environmental professionals who chose to outsource a portion of their historical research.

    The service will work similar to how the Sanborn service has worked over the years.  Environmental professionals can voluntarily elect to search the database for a particular address.  If no permits are identified, EDR will deliver a "no permit" letter documenting that a search was conducted.  When building permit records are found, EDR will deliver the permit history to the EP electronically.

    Our long term intentions are to continue aggressively investing in BuildFax so that the database grows to include more properties, more permits and more geographies. 

    I hope that over the coming weeks and months environmental professionals will check out the BuildFax database and evaluate the usefullness of the building permit report.  As with all of our products and services, we're eager to hear what you think so please, please, please let us know!

  • Changing Business Tactics - Or Not34.0
    Entry posted 08/07/09 by Rob

    So I've had my house on the market for the past 18 months and there's been practically zero interest from anyone in buying it.  I mean, very few people are even asking to come by and see it.  Meanwhile, two other homes in my neighborhood of the same model and in the same price range have both been sold recently.  So what gives?

    Over this entire time, the same Realtor has had the listing so we recently had a sit-down to talk about "strategy".  The two questions I posed to her were:

    1.  How did you sell during the boom years? and

    2.  How has your selling strategy changed since the recession?

    Her response was to look at me as if I just asked what the square root of 9,201 was.  Complete bewilderment.

    After a long pause, she responded roughly as follows:  "Well, I've put your house in the MLS, the listing now appears in multiple online listing sites (Realtor.com, Zillow, etc.), its been advertised in all the local papers and I've done three open houses."  To which I then asked, "Didn't you do all those things before the market crashed?"

    The point here is that she sells homes today exactly how she sold them in 2006.  Same strategies, same tactics.  Nothing has changed to reflect the fact that the entire market has changed. 

    This left me wondering if some  in the CRE due diligence field aren't making the same mistake.  As an information company, how is EDR changing its sales & marketing tactics given the market?  What are environmental consultants doing different today?  Are they trying to sell today the same way they did in 2006?

    There's no short answer to these questions because everyone's doing something different.  But one thing has been made perfectly clear to me these past 18 months.  The firms that sell today the same way they did in 2006 are not getting their desired results.  But the firms that have changed strategies and tactics, while not guaranteed success, are performing better as a group and have been less impacted by the market.

    So are your tactics the same today as they were three years ago?

  • Lessons from Netflix6
    Entry posted 07/09/09 by Rob

    I find the Netflix story completely compelling and I'm not even a customer.  After all, here's a business that, on the day it was started, knew it would die quickly if it didn't immediately begin to change.

    In case you're not familiar, Netflix makes money by mailing DVDs to subscribers at their request.  After the subscriber watches the DVD (movies, games, etc.) they mail it back and receive a new one.  The company was founded on the premise that Blockbuster's business model was flawed; specifically related to their system of charging high fees for movies returned late.  From the start, Netflix was a commercial success and the company has experienced strong growth.

    But Netflix's founder and CEO, Reed Hastings, knew from the start that a business that mailed content, in this case DVDs, would have a relatively short lifespan.  It would only be a matter of time until Netflix's customers would be able to experience the exact same content on demand, instantly and probably at a lower cost.  In other words, Netflix's "real" competition isn't Blockbuster or another DVD mailing service, it would eventually be the satellite, telco, cable or ISP.  More than likely it would be some combination thereof.

    So even though the company generates over $1.3 billion in revenues, it is currently in the process of tearing itself down so that it can rebuild.  Imagine how painful that must be for the average Netflix employee.  There are no sacred cows here.  Instead, Netflix has accepted the reality that the skills that produced the first $1.3 billion would not be the same skills that produce the next $1.3 billion.  

    What's unique about Neflix isn't their business situation, it's their acceptance of it.  All business models eventually die and are replaced by more efficient business models.  Sometimes this transition takes decades (steel, automobiles) while other times it seemingly happens overnight (fax machines, travel agencies).

    After all, when is the last time you faxed your vacation plans to your travel agent?     

     

     

  • CRE Activity in a Rising Interest Rate Environment1
    Entry posted 07/01/09 by Rob

    For those of us whose livelihood is impacted by property transactions, there is one fundamental question that we should be thinking about:  what happens to transactions volumes if interest rates rise rapidly (and possible reach double digits)?

    You'd think that transaction volume would have to be negatively impacted, right?  After all, if the cost of capital increases, the cost of ownership increases.  And if the cost of ownership increases, fewer people (or businesses) can afford the property. 

    But recently I heard an economist (who specializes in real estate fundamentals and forecasting) disagree for the following reason.  If we have more aggressive inflation, the price of everything increases; not just the cost of capital.  Included in the definition of "everything" are most commercial products and services and wages.  So if companies are able to pass along price increases to their customers, and if workers see earnings rise, then they're also able to afford the higher priced property or home.  Basically, his point is that "it's all relative".

    Rubbish!  I don't see any way that rising interest rates can be anything other than a drag on transaction volumes.  All one needs to do is look at 2002 through 2007 as a recent example.  During this time, rates were low, financing was easy and transactions exploded in both the commercial and residential markets. 

    So if you're planning and budgeting, and if need to develop a theory for what business might look like in 5 to 10 years, ask yourself this question:  what is the most likely long term trend for interest rates?

    Given the U.S has unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities of over $100 trillion, I think the long term interest rate directions should be rather clear. 

  • Father's Day2
    Entry posted 06/22/09 by Rob

    Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there and a huge "thanks" to all the moms, teachers and kids for being the ones who "really make it happen".  Being a father of two (3 and 6) I was struck yesterday by all the thought that goes into preparing for this holiday and quietly remorseful that I haven't put equal effort into Mother's Day, various birthdays and at least one anniversary.

    Clearly, teachers had been thinking about this for weeks and had concocted all sorts of art projects designed to make grown men weep (I love daddy because...).  Then, during lunch or dinner, family after family walk into restaurants or arrive at homes to share a meal, laugh and just spend time together due to plans made and reservations booked by moms.   

    I don't mean to insult anyone but I think, in general, mom's do Father's Day better than dad's do Mother's Day.      

  • I'm so mad at myself...1
    Entry posted 06/04/09 by Rob

    For doing exactly what I said I would not do when I started this blog; let months pass by without making an entry.  Why did I let this happen?!

    The easy excuse is "I've been busy" but that's really not much of an excuse.  Everyone is busy yet still find time to do things that are valuable.  After all, over the past several months, while I haven't blogged at all, I've been reading other's people's blogs, learning what their opinions are, jumping into a few discussions and following a few groups I'm interested in. So being busy simply does not cut it.

    Maybe it's because the benefits of blogging are not immediate and "in your face"?  After all, some business activities translate immediately into quantifiable results so the cause-effect relationship is clear.  Blogging is different.  With blogging, the benefit often remains hidden until months later when I talk in person with someone at an industry event and they say "I read your blog all the time and think it's good (or not)."  When this happens, the activity is validated and you become more motivated to keep in going.

    So here I am, back and recommitted to blogging on a regular basis. 

     

  • Consumer Electronics Show
    Entry posted 01/12/09 by Rob

    Every year I say I'm going to attend the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas and every year I fail to do so.  This year was no different.  I said I would go but, instead, I am in the office reading articles and blogs from others who attended and reported back on what's happening there.

    Some might wonder why, as the CEO of a business-to-business information company, I would be interested in CES.  This is especially true because I am not an early adopter of new technologies or a huge device geek.  Instead, I tend to let others try the new stuff out first and then decide whether or not to embrace something.

    My reason is this:  I believe a significant shift in how innovation spreads has occurred.  In the "old days" technological innovation primarily occurred in B-to-B spaces and, as costs gradually came down, the innovation eventually found its way to the consumer. 

    But today, much of this has flipped.  Many of the most innovative ideas are now developing first in the business-to-consumer realm and them migrating to the enterprise.  I think the reason for this is rather straight forward.  Even though a company sells a service to another company, the actual users of the service are consumers.  They are the same people who, in their personal lives, buy mobile devices, bank online, consume digital content and connect with friends electronically.  So as people become acquainted with certain services in their personal lives they soon come to expect them in their professional lives as well.  This phenomenon forces once separate value propositions to converge.

    Apparently, this has been a theme at CES this year as many new devices are being introduced that are always connected to the internet.  Rather than primarily differentiating themselves via their core features, these devices are differentiating themselves based upon the applications they can support.  For example, new televisions are competing less on traditional TV features and more on their connectedness.  According to an article in the New York Times, the TV manufactures know that increasingly "what will differentiate one TV from another is the software it runs and the Internet services it connects to."  The same article goes on to include the following quote from the CEO of Nokia; "Hardware is not enough.  We (Nokia) need to have a wider array of services and content."

    I'm interested in this because I see a similar thing occurring in information publishing as in consumer electronics.  For companies like EDR, delivering valuable data is no longer enough.  Sure, customers still need to see that our content is high quality and accurate.  But you can't sell on those benefits alone anymore.  Instead, you have to deliver value around the way people work.  For any data and content company, this means that future success lies in creating more value in how customers order, receive, experience, work with, analyze, archive, retrieve and integrate information.

    Everything that once was special or unique eventually becomes ordinary and expected.  The challenge for business today is to find the "new" special or unique and start bringing it to customers before your competition does. 

     

  • 2009 Available Debt Capital
    Entry posted 12/03/08 by Rob

    Like many people who work in the commercial real estate industry, I've spent more than my fair share of time recently talking with customers, investors, lenders and others who I think may have some insight into the markets that goes deeper than what we hear on the news or read in the paper.  Most of what I hear back is speculation or anecdotal evidence of things I already believe to be true.  However, yesterday I had a conversation with the CEO of a leading commercial real estate research and advisory firm that was truly eye opening.  Consider the following:

    • In 2007, the total supply of debt capital available for commercial real estate financing was $728 billion.  This was split roughly 50/50 between the private market and CMBS.
    • In 2009 this supply of debt capital will be reduced to approximately $310 billion.
    • Of this $310 billion, $235 billion is needed for refinancing existing mortgages thereby leaving only $75 billion for new deals.

    If you then assume LTVs of 60%, then 2009 will produce only $125 billion of transactions.  Over the past 4 quarters deal value was $185 billion indicating another 32% decline in the market.

    I had hoped that once the 4th quarter of 2008 rolled around, we'd begin to see a leveling out in the market on a year-on-year basis but it doesn't look like that will be the case.  Instead, all indicators show continued weakening in demand, debt capital and transactions.  Since the Phase I ESA industry is driven by transactions, it too will experience a similar softening.  Probably for another year or so.  To compound matters, over $20 billion in CRE mortgage balloon payments come due in 2009 which would normally be refinanced.  These are the balloons on investment grade properties like office buildings and shopping centers; two asset categories that are beginning to see rises in vacancy rates and drops in rents.  Cash flow from these properties is declining at exactly the same time they need to be refinanced and debt capital (let alone willingness) is reaching a new low.  What happens then?  Do the lenders foreclose and put the properties up for sale?  If so, what then happens to the value of comparable properties?  Certainly they'll decline even more, right?

    This same CEO told me they're forecasting this recession as the worst since World War II and I think that's more or less what we're going to get.   

  • Snowball1
    Entry posted 11/18/08 by Rob

    If anyone cares for a good read, especially something relevent in turbulent economic times, I'd recommend The Snowball:  Warren Buffett and the Business of Life (Alice Schroeder).  As the name implies, the book is less about Buffett's deal making and more about an approach to life; a quality that sets this book apart from most other books about Buffett.  For me, there are two key themes that resonate through each chapter.

    The first is the ever present concept of fiduciary duty.  Whenever someone handed their hard earned money over to Buffett to invest, he felt an enormous, almost sacred, responsibility to them.  As a result, he began a habit that would last for years.  Each year, he would write an amazingly detailed letter to investors that outlined his thoughts, opinions, and investment strategies.  He did this voluntarily and long before corporate disclosure became what it is today.  He did this not to cover his tail but because he felt it was the right thing to do for people who placed their trust in him.  On multiple occasions he told investors that their money "may" yield a higher return elsewhere even if it caused them to withdraw their funds and take them elsewhere.  Talk about leadership!  As I was reading this, I couldn't help but think about how Wall Street executives, automobile executives and politicians are behaving today.

    Second, and on the negative side, Buffett and his family certainly paid a price for his complete focus on investing.  Examples abound throughout the book illustrating a man who was rather detached from his family, distant to his kids and largely uninvolved in major aspects of family life.  Some of this was probably due to generational expectations and Buffett's own quirky personality.  But I couldn't help feeling somewhat sorry for him and his family.  Sure he was building a fortune in his 20's, 30's and 40's but he was also missing out on some of the best things life has to offer.

    Finally, and of particular interest to me, was something that I didn't know before.  In the 1960's, Buffett owned the Sanborn Map Company.  For years, Sanborn had been making detailed maps used by the insurance industry and the board of directors was composed mainly of insurance industry executives.  But by the 1950's, this business was in serious decline and profits were rapidly eroding.  But hidden behind the scenes at Sanborn was something beyond a map making operation.  Sanborn had also accumulated an investment portfolio of $2.5 million and this was growing.  However, the company was only being valued based on the map making business.  With Sanborn's stock trading at $45 per share, Buffett calculated the value of the investment portfolio to be $65 per share.  So buyers of Sanborn at $45 were essentially acquiring an investment portfolio for $.70 on the dollar and getting a mapping operation for free.  Buffett's response was to place 35% of his entire partnership assets in Sanborn.  In the end, the investment portfolio and map making operations were separated and Buffett closed out his investment.     

  • Commercial Real Estate Transactions2
    Entry posted 11/10/08 by Rob

    Last week, CB Richard Ellis reported a 13% decline in third-quarter revenue and cited a sharp decline in transactions as the primary cause.  In fact, 3Q transactional volume was said to be the lowest CBRE has ever recorded in their business. 

    Real Capital Analytics (RCA) also made the same point, citing a 67% drop in activity for the four major commercial property types (office, retail, industrial and multifamily). 

    Is there any good news here?  Not really but perhaps we're finally reaching the bottom of the cycle.  RCA points out that there may be as much as $300 billion "sitting on the sidelines" waiting to be invested in commercial real estate.  So how soon will this capital be put to work?

    I think we'll begin to see this capital enter the market starting in early 2009.  I say this because I think rising unemployment will finally force property owners to recognize, albeit reluctantly, the actual value of their CRE assets and force them to accept offer prices below their current levels.  This should hopefully get transactions moving again. 

    The U.S. economy just shed 240,000 jobs in October pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5%.  Goldman Sachs is predicting this could rise another 2% next year.  With unemployment rising steadily for the next year or two and GDP either contracting or growing at a sub 1% rate, controlling expenses becomes increasily important and this includes rents.  A decline in rents would then clearly impact the value of an investment property.

  • Predictions
    Entry posted 11/03/08 by Rob

    The eve of a presidential election, like the start of a new year, is as good a time as any to make some predictions about what the future of our industry may look like.  Things will certainly be changing but not necessarily because there will be a new administration in the White House.  Instead, things will be changing because that's what "things" do; they continuously change and evolve.  So here are my predictions for what we can all expect in the coming year or two:

    1. Whoever wins the White House will have less direct impact on our markets than many people think.  It's already clear that either McCain or Obama will inheret highly depressed credit and real estate markets.  Additionally, there's a strong chance the U.S. economy will also be in a recession.  But the next President will also be inhereting plans to turn things around and it's highly unlikely he will drop these plans and implement new ones.  Come January, TARP will be well into its implementation and the team of Paulson and Bernarke will be allowed to continue on their course.  As we've witnessed in virtually every presidential election during modern times, a lot is said during the campaign to appeal to voters on the left and right of the political spectrum.  But once in office, Presidents almost always move to the center in order to govern.  That will happen again.
    2. Phase I volumes will return to "normal" in 2010.   If this sounds too optimistic, hold on.  "Normal" does not equal the volume of transactions we witnessed in 2007.  While at the time we may have thought 250,000 Phase I transactions per year was normal, we now know that it wasn't.  There were probably 40,000 to 50,000 transactions in 2007 that were the direct result of a securitization market that just kept on giving.  The CMBS market will gradually return but there will be a much improved balance between the demand for credit and its supply.  This will lead to a market for Phase I services that will be around 200,000 per year and will grow from there at a 2-3% per annum rate for the next several years.
    3. The real growth in the environmental due diligence field will be in the demand for "other" types of environmental investigations;  services like desktop reviews and opinion letters.  This will be a very good thing for those firms who recognize this opportunity and adapt accordingly.  The most important thing for our industry is not how many Phase Is take place each year but, rather, how many properties receive some type of environmental investigation prior to transacting.  As underwriting standards increase and overall risk management policies become more conservative, the total pie is expanding and that will benefit many environmental consultants.  Gone are the days when some properties receive absolutely no environmental due diligence whatsoever. 
    4. The industry will continue its move towards specialization and consolidation.   Firms are realizing they can't be all things to all people so intelligently choosing your customers will be critically important.  Some firms will seek our corporate clients with global interests while others will focus primarily on a geographic region and a particular client sector (small banks, attorneys, etc.).  One path isn't necessarily better than another but what does matter is that firms evaluate their capabilities and then focus most of their efforts on a limited number of market segments where they can be the most successful (and profitable!).  Focus and clarity of purpose will separate the winners from the losers.

    Additionally, other areas of change may emerge as hugely significant.  The residential real estate market  is showing movement that environmental professionals may wish to pay attention to as more consumers are evaluating environmental risk prior to purchasing a home.  Firms are also looking to get their arms around their employee skill sets and implement enterprise wide training, skill development and knowledge management programs.  This will be of particular importance in light of major demographic shifts underway in the workforce and younger employees expectations of their employers.  Retaining and developing high performers should be the top priority for all management teams.

       

  • Phase 1 Search Engine Experiment
    Entry posted 10/29/08 by Rob

    Have you ever killed 20 minutes by typing the term "Phase 1" into various search engines to see what the first search result is?  If not, don't bother.  I tried this and here are the results from 10 sites:

    Google Phase 1 Lesbian Bar in D.C.
    YouTube CNN clip of Lou Dobbs talking about the US DOT granting access to US highways to Mexican truckers
    Yahoo! Digital photography for large format cameras
    EPA Foraminifera as ecosystem indicators
    CalEPA California green chemistry initiative
    Ask Phase 1 Lesbian Bar in D.C.
    Environmental Yellow Pages No search results found
    Environmental-Expert.com Acqueonics water and waste water consulting
    NYTimes.com 1971 article about President Nixon's economic stabilization program
    Commonground Blog entry about environmental site assessments

    So are we to draw any conclusions about the results from this highly non-scientific experiment?  Here are my opinions:

    • As an industry, we can do a lot more to claim the phrase "phase 1" as our own and improve the rankings of the term to highlight environmental assessments.  However, this would require our highly fragmented industry to focus more on search engine optimization on a company level.
    • The Environmental Yellow Pages is essentially worthless.  After all, how in the world can it produce no search results whatsoever?
    • Ditto for the EPA's search engine.  How can "foraminifera as ecosystem indicators" be a more relevant search result?  What is foramininfera anyway?
    • Lou Dobbs is Lou Dobbs
    • 1971 and 2008 look remarkably similar from an economic standpoint
    • DC area lesbians have a deep understanding of Google's and Ask's search algorithms

    Only Commonground produced a search result relevant to environmental site assessments and therein lies the importance of this niche professional and expert community.  As more content of all types accumulates within Commonground, and as the community creates more links to other relevant sites, the better our industry's search results will be regardless of where the search for information originates.  Everyone in our industry has a vested interest in making this happen.

    I'll go out on a limb and predict that, sometime in the not-to-distant future, when "Phase 1" is entered into a search box, one of the first results will be something from Commonground.  It may be a blog entry, discussion, document or member profile.  Selfishly, part of me hopes its something I contributed.  But, I think it would also be fantastic if it was an opinion or idea contributed by one of our industry's thought leaders.   

  • What About The Consumer?3
    Entry posted 10/13/08 by Rob

    Has anyone noticed that, with all the blame being thrown around, nobody in the media is talking about the role the average person has played in this mess?  Surely, it's quite clear that the investment banks, traditional banks, rating agencies, politicians and government regulators each played a role in causing or contributing to the current financial difficulties we're facing.  But what about the average consumer?  Isn't the consumer's behavior a major part of the problem also?

    Now I don't expect either presidential candidate to make this point if he expects to win the election.  Talking about executive pay and Wall Street greed will go much further in gaining votes in November.  But you'd think someone, somewhere would mention how imprudent people have become over the past few decades. 

    Consumerism is the American way and, the more consumers spend, the more robust the economy.  But when consumption becomes excessive and occurs at the expense of savings, eventually there will be a problem.  As I write this, I'm thinking about several personal friends of mine who have been living way beyond their means for a long time.  These a great people, good parents and hard workers.  But they've been seduced into acquiring things they either don't need or can't afford.  And as they've been doing so, they haven't set aside any money for retirement, let alone a job loss or other emergency. 

    One friend in California got into real estate sales about six years ago when the market was booming.  After a few commission checks, he immediately sold a home that was almost paid for and moved into a huge McMansion in Orange County with an equally huge mortgage.  And if that wasn't enough, he then leased two high-end luxury cars with a combined monthly payment of over $1,500.  Today, he's in dire straits.  I could go on-and-on with similar stories about people I know.

    When someone five years ago borrowed $330,000 to purchase a $300,000 house, thereby receving a check for $30,000 at closing, spent the $30,000 and hoped to be able to refinance later on, that person made a poor personal and financial decision.  Granted, the Realtor and mortgage broker involved gave him very bad advice and they too share some blame.  But ultimately, aren't we all responsible for our choices?  Over the past several years, millions of Americans purchased mortgages that they didn't understand but decided to purchase them anyway.  Whenever these people are portrayed in the media, they're always portrayed as innocent victims who were taken advantage of.  They always tell the story about how they were duped into securing a mortgage based on the promise that their home's value would only ever increase.  Each of these stories is tragic because real people, with real children, hopes and dreams are now losing their homes.  But somewhere in the middle of this entire mess, one has to think that they bear at least a tiny bit of the blame.

    Something tells me that if, as a nation, we were better at living within our personal means, then we would not have become as over-extended as we have. 

  • Bail-Out Plan
    Entry posted 10/02/08 by Rob

    As the possible government bail-out plan is being tossed around Congress, I think I'm changing my opinion about what it may and may not accomplish.  Or at a minimum, my expectations are rapidly being re-adjusted.

    Initially, I favored the idea of the government removing distressed assets from bank balance sheets, thereby unclogging the credit crunch and allowing capital to begin flowing again.  While not a completely risk-free idea, if the government sold off these assets later on, and if the value of the assets increased by then, it seemed possible that the program could work.  And perhaps it still could.

    But what concerns me now is the price the government would pay for those assets.  A huge part of the problem now is that nobody knows exactly what these assets' values are.  Therefore, they haven't changed on bank balance sheets and the government, as I understand it, plans to pay 100 cents on the dollar for them.  But while we may not know their exact value, and could probably argue about that all day long, we do know for a fact that they're worth less today than they were a year ago.  So essentially, the government (aka the taxpayer) will be overpaying for them but by an amount we don't know.  I've heard a lot of figures thrown around about their true value and a ballpark estimate is they may be worth 70 percent of their book value.  This is another way of saying they've lost around 30% of their value.  Some think they've lost even more of their value.  This is where the mark-to-market controversy comes in.

    Some argue that, if we "simply" found a way to correctly value these assets (which is clearly not a "simple" thing to do), a lot of private capital sitting on the sidelines would swoop in and begin buying assets on the belief that they'd be worth more in the future.  In fact, the reason the government feels the need to step in is precisely because private investors won't tough the stuff because the price is believed to be too high relative to their actual current value.

    Of course, the counter arguement is that, if the banks wrote down these asset values, they go under.

    What a chicken-and-egg situation we have here.  The bank has an asset worth $1, knows it's worth less than that but doesn't know how much.  And even if the bank did know what it was worth, it would go out of business if it adjusted the value to the correct figure.  Private groups, flush with cash, are watching closely, would probably buy the asset if it was correctly valued at $.70 but haven't budged because everyone is still pretending the asset is still worth $1.  And now the federal government seems poised to step in and buy the $.70 asset for $1 and hope it's value returns by the time they sell the asset.

    So what's the lesser of two evils?  Either the government refuses to knowingly overpay for assets and the system remains clogged or they do overpay but unclog the system (hopefully) and push the problem off to the future when (again, hopefully) the economy is stronger and can better absorb the hit.

       

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