Let me first say that I'm not British, and any news about the UK's adulation of the royal family strikes me as outdated and silly. While I was on vacation with my slightly dysfunctional family last week, a group of "emminent" economists in merry old England issued a formal apology to Queen Elizabeth II for failing to predict the financial crisis. It was their response to her "demand" nine months earlier at the London School of Economics to know why no one was able to predict the crash.

Call me childish, but reading this conjured up images of the old Monty Python movies my brother forced me to watch growing up...the bumbling men in fancy dress falling over each other and quaking in fear as they went before royalty.

According to the letter of apology, "In summary, your majesty, the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis and to head it off, while it had many causes, was principally a failure of the collective imagination of many bright people, both in this country and internationally, to understand the risks to the system as a whole." Don't we know this already? Is this really news in July 2009?

There are plenty of well-researched pieces on the risk management failures that led to the mess we're in. I caught up on old Vanity Fairs last week with meaty pieces on the likes of AIG, Goldman Sachs and other worthy scapegoats who threw risk management to the winds in their pursuit of profit. There's plenty of blame to go around that goes way beyond the best economic minds in the world. And, if the world's leading economics can't accurately forecast the market, then what hope do the rest of us have in doing our FY10 forecasts for Phase I ESA volume? 

[I mean no disrespect to any UK readers out there, and blame John Cleese. If I've offended anyone, let me know and I will promptly (i.e., within 9 months) issue a formal letter of apology and cc her majesty.]

Next up: my recap of 2Q09 Phase I ESA market results, and perhaps a word on my forecast with a long list of caveats!