It’s coming, is your client prepared?  During the next 30 years The United States Geological Survey calculates a significant risk of earthquake ground accelerations that exceed the levels of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake which far exceed the levels of the Loma Prieta and Northridge earthquakes.  It is estimated millions of square feet of large, privately owned structures likely will perform poorly during the earthquake and might be seriously impaired for extensive periods after the seismic event.   Should these predictions become reality, a host of potential legal claims, many for personal injury and death, could pose serious financial risk for property owners.

This hypothetical legal exposure may be reduced if the owners of these structures take remedial action before the earthquake.  The first thing that property owners should do is engage a competent seismic specialist to analyze the facility and predict its performance in two or more possible seismic events. This “seismic assessment” will address the likelihood that seismic demand will exceed the capacity of the structure in hypothetical seismic scenarios. The seismic assessment should address the likelihood that the peak ground acceleration and corresponding “interstory drift” of the structure to determine the buildings capacity to handle future seismic loads or to lose its capacity to handle simple gravity loads.

If the seismic assessment warns of unacceptable performance during a short time horizon (say a 50 percent chance of collapse within 10 years), the owner should take steps to manage the extraordinary legal risk associated with the use and operation of the vulnerable facility.  Whether the private owner of the structure is deemed negligent should turn on certain findings of fact:

1. Whether a condition on the property created an unreasonable risk of harm
2. Whether the owner knew or, through the exercise of reasonable care, should have known about it
3. Whether the owner failed to repair the condition to protect against harm from the condition

To reduce exposure a Corrective Action Plan should be developed to provide guidance to the owner on short term interim use and long term mitigation of seismic risk is prudent under the circumstances. Reliance on legitimate and well-reasoned expert advice may reduce the potential exposure to death and personal injury claims, because the owner may be able to prove that its reliance on the seismic specialist and its management of the structure was reasonable under the circumstances. As a practical matter, these solutions will often require careful coordination with existing leasehold tenants, including providing temporary alternate space during periods of retrofit construction.

Bottom line, a seismic engineering firm should provide guidance to the owner on how long interim use is prudent under the circumstances. The reliance on legitimate and well-reasoned advice of this type can also reduce the potential exposure by being proactive.