
I keep getting amused about the $700 Phase I conversations that keep occurring in our industry. I have two points to make on this subject and you can agree or disagree with me (in fact I encourage it).
1) First of all, the term Phase I ESA often means much more to EP’s than to many of the unsophisticated users, especially smaller lenders (which I will focus on here). This is in large part due to the fact that most lenders just need to get a read on a property and don’t always need a Phase I. For those who know me, you know that I have spoken to and with literally thousands of smaller lenders over the past several years and most unsophisticated lenders just consider getting an “environmental” for their due diligence…whether it is a Phase I or something much different is not a big deal to them if they feel they get a good understanding of it (this is a whole different topic which I will discuss in the future). In fact, many can be convinced of most anything that makes their costs go down.
2) We are in a very mature industry where the providers want to keep the status quo. What other industry provides basically the same product (if not better) over 15 years yet doesn’t have a price DECREASE…computers are better and cheaper than ever, cellular phone service is better and cheaper, even Starbucks is cheaper than it used to be…all because of one thing…competition.
I would argue that the computer comparison to the Phase I industry is the best. All of the components of the computer are better today than they used to be because the computer manufacturers have found lower cost providers. This allows them to sell a good product to their customers at a lower cost. This is the same for Phase I reports…many providers of Phase I reports are now looking to benefit from lower costs available to them now. For example, independent contractors who are willing to do the work for less money (I know many are quite happy with this arrangement and others wish to work full time for a firm but either way results in a lower cost service). In addition, there are many more data providers out there which have made data costs lower for those that shop around. In fact, in some cases, data is now free. There are sources of aerials, property information, public records, etc. that are much easier to find than in the past. For those that focus on a specific area, they often become experts in their geography and can acquire their own information from local sources.
The truth is that there are many more competitive forces in the industry than there used to be and while many are fighting the tide, things are changing. For the computer companies that tried to keep their price up without a differentiation that mattered to customers, they have lost significant market share (remember Gateway?) While there are clear exceptions to this rule, I would argue that this applies to our industry as well.
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I have to take issue on one point....
"All of the components of the computer are better today than they used to be because the computer manufacturers have found lower cost providers."
I don't agree that this is necessarily the case. Lower-cost providers for components doesn't automatically mean higher quality-- sometimes it means exactly the reverse. Case in point, the class-action lawsuits filed against Dell, HP, and others over whole generations of computers assembled from defective parts manufactured by overseas lowest bidders.
Anecdotally - when I was in grad school, I worked part-time for the IT department. One year, we received a whole lab's worth of brand new Dells, back in the "Dude, you're getting a Dell!" days. Three weeks later, most of them were dead with fried motherboards, just in time for students to have to start writing papers.
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Tom - I actually agree with you on your point and would like to make a clarification to my discussion. I agree that often the lower cost doesn't mean higher quality...however, we as consumers have agreed to make tradeoffs to gain better pricing on products, including computers. I didn't mean to allude that lower cost = higher quality...I just meant that it costs much less today to get something similar to that of several years ago. Thanks for the note.
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I have to take issue with most of this post.
I see the exact opposite in the industry. Most small lenders are becoming more sophisticated. They may use the term "environmental", but this is tied to the fact that they often order multiple products/services and thus generalize, rather than specify an exact service. They know the difference between a Phase I, a Transaction Screen, an RSRA and a database report.
I think every EP on this site is aware that providing Phase I's is a mature industry, it has been for years. However, EP's that are interested in performing Phase I are not content with the status quo as you state and have analyzed every piece of their process to reduce cost and provide a better product. Those that have not done this are likely in the category of providing Phase I's for existing clients and not actively marketing them. Interestingly, those providers often tell me that they get significantly higher prices for Phase I's because it is relationship driven.
Maybe you didn't mean it, but you seem to have bashed both EP's and lenders in this post.
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As I stated at the beginning of my original post, this post was meant to spark conversation so apparently it worked.
However, I take great exception with your last comment. As a former colleague, you know that I would not do that. I have been fortunate to work with and for environmental consultants and lenders for most of my career and have tremendous respect for both of them and the work that they do and would not insult them or their industries.
I actually agree that many of the folks on this site are aware of the mature industry but this site only represents a small sample of environmental consultants in the overall environmental industry. And you help make my point stating that the EP's on this site are trying to improve their product and reduce their costs. This leads to a better product at a lower cost. I never stated that the product quality is decreasing, just the cost to produce and deliver it.
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I don't think it was intentional, but when you use the term "unsophisticated" and "providers want to keep the status quo", both have negative conotations. Choose your words wisely.
This site no longer represents a minority, it's a majority.
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They only have negative connotations when they are taken out of context. I wasn't referring to everyone in this post.
My point was that there continue to be unsophisticated or novice users of due diligence products, competition and technology are forcing change, and there are now more ways to manage risk than in the past. Many of the lenders I work with actually acknowledge their lack of understanding of due diligence which is why they partner with people that do. It is actually an opportunity for many us in the industry.
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Interesting. While it is true that the cost of computers has gone down (see Moore's Law and the Producer Price Index from the BLS), in many cases the price a consumer actually pays "out-of-pocket" for a computer (the observed price) has stayed pretty much the same for many years.
Take, for example, the computers sold by Apple. The flagship Apple Mac Plus product cost $2599 when it was introduced in 1986 -- in today's dollars, that's $5,174. These days, Apple lists its top of the line Mac Pro with monitor for $5098. 25 years later, the price a consumer pays for a top of the line Mac remains almost exactly the same.
Another example from Apple: the IPod in 2001 cost $492 in today's dollars; the IPad of today costs $499; a new IPhone without the contract subsidy costs $499 - $699.
This same pricing model holds for Microsoft PC's as well. The first IBM PC, released in 1981, typically sold for $3000 for home use, or $7200 in today's dollars. Remember, this was the top of the line IBM home computer at the time. Today, the top of the line Windows Dell home gaming computer can be purchased for well over $7200, assuming you order the most modern componants available. So, in this case, prices have actually increased, rather than decreased. Furthermore, even low end prices for computers running Windows have held steady at slightly above $1000 for years, assuming you get the popular technology of the day like speakers, wireless, and a decent monitor.
Of course, actual prices for directly comparable component technology have gone down geometrically, due to competition and innovation, but the demand for new features has helped keep actual out-of-pocket prices fairly steady in comparison, and the consumer continues to pay the same amount for the standard accepted technology of the day.
The story doesn't end there, though. While component prices for similar goods have been decreasing, at the same time overall corporate technology spending has been increasing substantially. Corporations continue to invest in new computer technology at growing rates. For details, see this excellent series of several articles from Harvard Business Review.
In short, an economic model based on what happens in the the computer industry has three possible structures:
1. A model of improving features but steady prices for final to market products
2. A model of increasing corporate spending on the technology
3. A model of rapidly declining prices for directly comparable parts and components
Now, back to the Phase I market. If you are saying that Phase I pricing is following some normative economic model analogous to computers sold to consumers and corporations, then it seems you ought to be saying that actual Phase I pricing should be holding steady and that the features offered in the Phase I should be improving over time. You also ought to say that total corporate spending on environmental due diligence should be increasing, again following the computer model.
But, that is not what you are saying. You seem to be saying that, as if it were similar to the parts and components of a computer, Phase I "components" go down in price as raw materials and production processes improve under the steady pressure of competition. But this is odd thing to say: the main cost component of a Phase I is simply the professional service provided, and services, like all consulting relying on highly qualified people, are much more resistant to pricing reductions than material components, because its much more difficult to get large cost reductions from U.S. labor than from a material object that can be produced overseas or from a software product where development can be tightly streamlined. In any event, with professional services, short of overseas outsourcing, you certainly cannot get the same kind of geometric price reductions found in the computer component industry. Needless to say, it seems unlikely that Gordon Moore intended to include environmental due diligence in his famous formulation about computer processing power.
In summary, while there is an economic story here to be told about Phase I ESA pricing pressure, competition and quality, it seems that an analogy with a computer isn't the clearest way to tell it.
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While I understand your response, I think it adds much more complexity than necessary to the point that I am trying to make. From my personal experience, 15 years ago I purchased a Compaq computer with a 486 processor for about $1500. It had few bells and whistles and it basically allowed me to do work, browse the internet slowly (with my 56k dial up modem and $19.99/month AOL membership), and play a few games. Just recently, I bought a laptop with tons of memory, a built in camera, built in wireless, and so many more features for $450. I can do so much more with this machine than the one 15 years ago so for the utility of the computer from my perspective (the customer), the pricing has decreased.
As far as due diligence goes, I agree that professional services have not undergone the same pricing pressures as components have (thankfully for us professional service providers), but the actual time to gather information has been decreased due to techological advances and competition. Therefore, the total hours of production have decreased, which results in lower costs. Also, through many dynamics in the industry, the actual spend on due diligence has decreased due to many alternatives to Phase I's being offered that were not used in the past.
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